The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is “likely to get worse before it gets better,” an analyst said, as relations between the Southeast Asian countries collapse to their lowest level in years.
The next few days could see more “confrontation, clashes, escalation,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, told CNN. “Each side has so much pent-up tension.”
Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended this month after the leak of a phone call she had with Cambodia’s powerful former leader Hun Sen, in which she appeared to criticize her army’s actions in their long-standing border dispute.
Some background: Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia with an iron fist for almost 40 years, stepped down in 2023 and handed power to his son Hun Manet. But he remains a hugely influential figure in Cambodian politics: He serves as senate president and was a friend and ally of Paetongtarn’s father, the former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
“(Thailand’s) government is very weak and there’s no unity,” said Pongsudhirak, adding Cambodia is “exploiting divisions in Thailand.”
The border dispute will make the ASEAN regional grouping “even more off balance,” Pongsudhirak said. The grouping, which includes Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, among other Southeast Asian countries, has faced challenges and setbacks in recent years, including internal conflicts, territorial disputes, and geopolitical tensions.
